Blog

The model no longer goes quiet when a match starts — live-updating Bayesian probabilities refresh every minute as goals go in and time runs down.

The model has no commercial stake in the outcome. That's not a feature — it's the whole point.

A quiet month on features but a critical one on foundations: the team identity registry, a public API, and an honest look at what the model's early-season accuracy is telling us.

How a null entry in a 96-row registry file caused Ligue 1 to show zero results — and what it took to track down a silent ID collision hiding in plain sight.

Free user accounts, a model performance page anyone can read, and a picks challenge where you compete against friends — and the Bayesian model itself.

Create a prediction challenge, invite friends with a shareable link, and compete on a live leaderboard against each other — and the model.

A complete guide to Bayesian football predictions — from loading your first league to reading market edge on upcoming fixtures.

Get one-tap access to live Bayesian football predictions on iPhone and Android — no app store required

Automatic match results, real-time updates across five European leagues, and the tools that help value hunters find the edge

Update Your Priors: How the World Cup Turned Me Into a Bayesian Model Builder