Is Edge Model a real app? Do I need to download it from the App Store?

Edge Model is a progressive web app — it runs entirely in your browser. No download from the App Store or Google Play is required. Saving it to your home screen gives you an app-like experience with one-tap access.

What leagues and tournaments does Edge Model cover?

Edge Model covers major European football leagues (Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1) and international tournaments. Results are ingested automatically and championship probabilities update in real time.

Are Edge Model's predictions a guarantee?

No. Edge Model is a statistical tool that computes probabilities from match history and prior team strength. It is intended for analytical purposes only and does not guarantee any outcome. It should not be used as financial or betting advice.

How to Save Edge Model to Your Phone — Access Bayesian Football Predictions Instantly

Edge Model is a progressive web app, which means it runs in your browser like any website but can be saved to your home screen like a native app. No App Store. No Google Play. No updates to download. The next time you want to check whether your team's championship probability shifted after last night's result, it is one tap away — right alongside your other apps.

Here is how to set it up on your device.

On iPhone — Safari

Safari is the only browser on iOS that supports home screen saves. If you normally browse in Chrome or Firefox on your iPhone, open this page in Safari first.

1

Open Edge Model in Safari

Navigate to edgemodel.tech in Safari. You will see the championship predictor load with the current standings.
2

Tap the Share button

At the bottom of the Safari window, tap the Share button — a square with an arrow pointing upward. The share sheet will slide up from the bottom of the screen.
3

Tap "Add to Home Screen"

Scroll down in the share sheet until you see Add to Home Screen and tap it. If you do not see it immediately, swipe left on the row of app icons to reveal more options.
4

Tap Add

You will see a preview showing the name Edge Model and the trophy icon. Tap Add in the top-right corner. The shortcut will appear on your home screen immediately.

On Android — Chrome

1

Open Edge Model in Chrome

Navigate to edgemodel.tech in Chrome on your Android device.
2

Open the browser menu

Tap the three-dot menu (⋮) in the top-right corner of Chrome.
3

Tap "Add to Home screen"

Select Add to Home screen from the menu. On some versions of Chrome a prompt may appear at the bottom of the screen automatically — either route works.
4

Tap Add to confirm

Confirm the name and tap Add. The trophy icon will appear on your home screen.

What you get

Once it is on your home screen, tapping the icon opens Edge Model directly — no browser chrome, no typing a URL. The experience is nearly identical to a native app. Your session persists, so you will land straight back into whichever league or tournament you were following.

What Edge Model tracks

Championship probability for every team in the league, updated after each result
Bayesian pre-match win/draw/loss predictions (Skellam distribution)
Market edge — how far the model's probability diverges from bookmaker odds
Automatic result ingestion for the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, and Ligue 1
Knockout tournament bracket simulation (World Cup, WAFCON, and more)

The model is built on the Gamma-Poisson distribution for leagues and the Dirichlet distribution for knockout tournaments. Probabilities update continuously as results come in — so the first thing to check after a weekend of fixtures is how each team's championship odds shifted. Over a full season, even small swings compound into significant changes in the standings.

If you want to understand the thinking behind the model, the first article on this blog covers how it was built during the 2026 World Cup and what a Dirichlet distribution has to do with managing your expectations of your favourite team.

Disclaimer. Edge Model is a statistical research tool. All probabilities are model estimates derived from historical match data and are not guaranteed outcomes. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, betting, or investment advice. Use at your own discretion.