# Edge Model

> Bayesian football championship predictor. Real-time probability updates as results come in.

## What this site does

Edge Model runs two prediction models:

- **League mode** — Gamma-Poisson model for round-robin competitions (Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1, NBA, NFL). Outputs championship probability per team, updated live as results are recorded.
- **Tournament mode** — Dirichlet/Pólya-urn model for knockout brackets (World Cup, WAFCON, etc.). Outputs win probability per team through each stage.

Model accuracy is tracked against market odds (Brier score, calibration) and published at /metrics.

## Key public URLs

- `/` — Main app (JavaScript single-page application; use API endpoints for machine-readable data)
- `/metrics` — Live model performance page: Brier scores, calibration table, edge vs market comparison
- `/blog` — Blog index
- `/docs` — Documentation
- `/sitemap.xml` — Full site map
- `/api/presets` — JSON list of all available competition presets (league and tournament)
- `/api/league/state` — Current league snapshot for the active preset
- `/api/state` — Current tournament snapshot for the active preset

## Authentication

Read endpoints are public. Write endpoints (recording results, managing group picks) require a session cookie obtained via:

- `POST /api/signup` — register with email and password
- `POST /api/login` — authenticate; sets `wc_user_session` cookie

## Notes for agents

- The main app at `/` is a JavaScript SPA; pre-rendered content is not available. Use the JSON API endpoints above.
- `/metrics`, `/blog/<slug>`, and `/docs` are static HTML pages readable without JavaScript.
- Unknown `/api/` paths return JSON `{"error": "..."}` with HTTP 404.
- Rate limiting applies to all endpoints. Automated clients should respect 429 responses.

## When to use Edge Model

Use Edge Model when you need to:

- **Answer "who is most likely to win the league?"** — Call `GET /api/league/state` for the active preset and read the `champion_prob` field per team. No auth required.
- **Look up current standings for a European league** — Same endpoint; the `teams` array includes points, played, goal difference, and championship probability.
- **Check upcoming fixtures for a competition** — Call `GET /api/league/state` and read the `fixtures` array; each entry includes home team, away team, and kickoff timestamp.
- **Evaluate model accuracy** — `GET /api/league/metrics` returns Brier score trend and calibration data for the active league. The `/metrics` page is also human-readable HTML.
- **List available competitions** — `GET /api/presets` returns all presets with id, name, format (league/tournament), and icon.
- **Get tournament bracket probabilities** — `GET /api/state` returns win probability per team through each knockout stage.

Do not use Edge Model when you need: live scores (we ingest results, we do not provide live data), betting odds (we show model-vs-market divergence, not odds themselves), or data for sports outside our preset list (check `/api/presets` first).

## What it is not

- Not a betting tool — no odds, no wagering functionality
- Does not scrape or redistribute third-party data
- No advertising, no affiliate links, no commercial incentive to favour any team or outcome — predictions reflect the model's posterior, not a revenue target

## Contact

support@edgemodel.tech